I recently came up with this scene while thinking about the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Everyone can see Trump perched in slow motion, a disaster. The key to avoiding the debacle he represents is simple and obvious, for the country and the Republican Party.
Keep the field small. out of the way.
This dynamic is no secret to Trump or his team. Washington Examiner“More than six Trumpworld advisers, former administration officials, and campaign operatives Washington Examiner its support [Ron] DeSantis will slowly erode as more Republicans proclaim for 2024. ”
One member of Trump World examiner“Basically, we hope Nikki Haley runs.”
And why would Trump World want a crowded field? , Trump won 33% of the vote in a head-to-head matchup with DeSantis). This suggests that Trump is likely to lose in a head-to-head matchup with MAGA’s adjacent candidates. But the bigger the field, the more likely Trump’s 30% or more will push him to the top.
Complicating matters, Trump’s current weakened state could invite enemies and (ironically) create the conditions necessary for him to win.
It’s easy to imagine a scenario where DeSantis, Haley, Glenn Youngkin, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pompeo, Liz Cheney, Larry Hogan, Kristi Noem, and Josh Hawley (just to name a few) all play out. This could split the non-Trump vote and ensure that Donald wins by a large majority.
Anti-Trump conservatives like me shouldn’t put all their hopes on, say, DeSantis. I don’t even know if he will run for president. And even if he does run, there’s no telling if he’ll hold up to punches, or how he’ll perform in a husting.All the eggs he puts in one his DeSantis basket is It’s crazy.
Also, sometimes candidates are our think Rockstars (see Fred Thompson and Rick Perry) fade, but longshots (see Bill Clinton and Pete Buttigieg) can win or at least make a name for themselves.
For this reason, I used to be a fan of the presidential election blooming theory. Sadly, 2016 highlighted all the problems associated with such a large field. Therefore, in the interest of the country and the party, Republican candidates should avoid frivolous vanity campaigns to elevate their status.
Choosing to run against Trump in a crowded 2024 primary is a very different moral choice than 2016. And after he did everything (i.e. Charlottesville, the Big Lie, instigating a Capitol riot to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, dinners with anti-Semites, etc.) Such complacency is unacceptable.
Now is not the time to run for public office just for book deals and publicity. Candidates who choose to run for the 2024 Republican nomination must be realistic about their chances of winning and the ramifications of their vanity project.
Nikki Haley fits into this category. I think she’s managed to keep most Trumpers and Never Trumpers away by trying to be everything to everyone she has. She probably can’t win, but she can take votes away from someone like DeSantis. praying she runs Similarly, Mike Pence also has to accept reality. as MSNBC Morning Joe Co-host Joe Scarborough recently said of Pence: sixth senseHe is politically unaware that he is dead. ”
As the physicist Richard Feynman said, “The first principle is that you should not deceive yourself and that you are the most gullible person.”
With so many incentives to run, a more realistic plea is for Republicans to run for president in 2023 and drop out before the first primary vote is taken. Cast in 2024.
Still, a selfish or delusional candidate could rationalize igniting later. do you want?
Republicans are once again facing the problem of collective action. They would all do well to heed my advice, but personal interests discourage it. Without a leader who can force cooperation, we are left with the following questions. Will Republicans, who understand how dangerous Trump’s second term is for America, put their country first?
If potential candidates really love this country, they should consider sweeping it or leaving early to prevent disaster. Roll.