Expert Saints vs Eagles, Bears vs Lions Predictions
NFL Odds & Picks
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The Saints defense should be able to keep them up in this game.
New Orleans has allowed just 15.6 points per game over its last eight games, and is up to eighth in weighted defensive DVOA. At a high level, the Saints are conservative, with a Blitz percentage of only 16.4%, which is his seventh lowest percentage in the league.
This could work in your favour, as Gardner Minshew posted a 79.5 passer rating from clean pockets and a 62.1 rating when not blitzed this season. Minshew also has his tackle right on Lane Johnson (groin) where he ranks as the 7th best tackle in the league with an 83.2 PFF grade.
Defensively, the Eagles are weaker on runs (16th in weighted DVOA) than on passes (6th), which is consistent with what the Saints want to do offensively. New Orleans’ run game got a big boost with the return of center Eric He McCoy in Week 15. In his 11 games McCoy appeared, the Saints averaged 133.1 yards on the ground.
Intangible factors should also work in favor of saints. A win would give the Eagles the No. 1 seed, but they don’t have much incentive to score higher, as they obviously don’t want to lose another player with Johnson’s ability.
What’s more, if the Vikings lose to the Packers, it could end in a draw. A lower expected score benefits the underdog. We’ve seen that over and over again this season.
Action Labs data shows that underdogs who total 47 or less on field goals or more have an ATS of 67-42 (61%) this season, covering 1.9 points per game.
Luck should also be on the Saints’ side. On the luck rankings, he ranks 24th, while the Eagles are recorded as his second luckiest team by 22 spots. In games with a 16+ luck differential, his ATS on unlucky teams has gone 35-21 (63%) since he started tracking results in Week 3.
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A support team that has been eliminated from playoff contention in the final two weeks of the season is a counterintuitive approach that has been consistently profitable.
According to my colleague and Action Network Podcast co-host Stuckey, since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win have been 95-57-4 (62%) ATS. It’s already priced because it lives to qualify for the playoffs. The Lions fit the bill as a team with a bulging line since the end of the regular season he’s still alive heading into the second Sunday.
The Lions Blitz have the third highest percentage (32.3%), and Justin Fields’ Passer Rating goes from 81.7 non-Blitz to 105.2 Blitz. The Lions blitzed Fields for his 53.8% of dropbacks in Week 10, and Fields got the advantage by throwing two touchdowns in his 12th blitz on his dropbacks.
Regardless of the scheme, the Lions defense, which has been trending upward since early November, is again a cause for concern. The Panthers grabbed 320 rushing yards on his 43 carries (7.4 yards per carry) and 250 passing yards on 22 attempts (11.4 yards per attempt) for a staggering 570 total yards per play. Gained 8.8 yards.
This is the same Lions defense that allowed the Bears 408 total yards and 7.0 yards per play in Week 10, achieved in Detroit’s “good stretch.” The Bears’ offense saw Khalil Herbert making his second game comeback, Equanieus St. Brown (no injury specified) returning from concussion, and Chase his Claypool (doubtful; knee) headed for return. Being there should give you momentum.
The Bears’ defense has been a disaster as well, but unlike Detroit, it’s on the upswing. Rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon has his two picks and in the past two weeks he ranks 22nd among 106 eligible cornerbacks with a coverage grade of 74.3 PFF. increase. His fellow rookie Jayron Jones has two pass breakups in the same span, allowing just 59 yards on 10 targets.
When these teams faced off in Week 10, the Bears’ defense held the Lions to 323 total yards, despite having already parted ways with Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.
A favorite’s ability to bounce back from a major loss tends to be overrated. According to Action Labs data, since 2017, the favorite ATS who lost by 10 points or more is 97-122-5 (44%). On the other hand, the underdog who lost by 20 points or more had 108-70-3 (61%) his ATS over the same span.
Luck should also be on the Bears’ side. Chicago is recorded as the league’s most unlucky team this season, 11 places behind Detroit. In games with a 10+ luck difference, his ATS on the unlucky side has gone up to 55-41-1 (57%) since he started tracking results in Week 3.
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