Tesla is expected to announce record quarterly shipments in early January, as electric-vehicle leaders grapple with concerns over inflation, rising interest rates, reduced production in China and softening demand. , may be insufficient to satisfy investors.
To clear inventory, Tesla offered U.S. customers who received a new Model 3 or Model Y at the end of the year an infrequent $7,500 discount, along with 16,000 kilometers of free Supercharging. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) restores federal tax credits for certain EVs up to $7,500 beginning January 1.
Car deliveries are one of the most watched metrics by investors wanting to know if Tesla can sustain its rapid growth. Worldwide deliveries could reach 420,760 in the fourth quarter, according to 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The estimate, which does not include some recent analyst forecasts, surpasses the record 343,830 vehicles delivered in the third quarter.
Tesla is the world’s leading distributor of electric vehicles and is well-positioned to take advantage of some of the IRA’s tax credits for manufacturing battery cells and locally assembled EVs. But Tesla is likely to compromise on gross margins in order to hit a target it has warned will fall just short of it in 2022. Schedule downtime.
Investors are skeptical. Tesla’s stock has fallen 65% this year, more than triple his 19% drop in the S&P 500 index.
In April, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will produce more than 1.5 million cars in 2022. In his first three quarters, the company produced 929,910 cars, so he needs to produce over 570,000 cars to reach that goal. In the third quarter, production exceeded deliveries by more than 22,000, and with cars still in transit into the new year, the gap could continue this quarter.
Robert W. Baird analyst Ben Kallo said in a note this week that he expects shipments in the fourth quarter and 2023 “given the reported slowdown in production and the weakening macro environment.” I lowered my estimate. Caro, whose Tesla shares have outperformed ratings, expects the automaker to report 378,262 deliveries in the quarter.
“I worry about the general economic environment,” Caro told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “Do people have the wallet to buy a $60,000 car? That’s what the market is concerned about, too.”
Tesla’s Model 3 sedan and Model Y sport utility vehicle make up the majority of sales. The company will sell cars until midnight on New Year’s Eve, and from the end of the quarter he will report global shipments and production numbers within three days.
The Austin, Texas-based company has a long history of going all out at the end of the quarter, with Tesla employees across the company working together to help deliver cars to customers. On the last earnings call, his chief financial officer, Zachary Kirkhorn, said his one-third of the quarter’s shipments occurred in his last two weeks of the third quarter.
Update: Jan 1, 2023, 4:00 AM